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1,408 views • May 4, 2022
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V3_疫情封控和俄入侵重挫全球化 中國加速封閉

<<杰弗裡‧塔克 https://we.tl/t-IL2fcICT2Z https://brownstone.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Screen-Shot-2022-05-01-at-5.43.06-PM.png 章家敦 https://we.tl/t-pLHPwYWLBf>>
美國智庫「布朗斯通研究所」所長 杰弗里‧塔克:「經濟自由化總是與那種單一的、一黨制政體的國家相悖。也就是說,掌權者要在他們的權力和自由化之間做出選擇,而權力永遠是他們的選擇。」
((24.48-25.12 economic liberalisation is always going to be intention like at odds with a kind of unitary, one party, political state. You know, that's and If the people in charge have to make a choice between their power and the liberalization that always choose their power. ))
美國智庫「布朗斯通研究所」(Brownstone Institute)所長杰弗里‧塔克(Jeffrey Tucker)親眼見證中共當局對上海清零封城的措施後,曾經對中國經濟前景和發展相當樂觀,並支持全球化的他,不再看好中國。 美國智庫「布朗斯通研究所」所長 杰弗里‧塔克:「中國的政策將共產黨及其地位和信譽置於其經濟未來之上,這是一個嚴重的問題。只要是這樣,中國就會真的嘗試進行相當離譜的實驗。我的意思是,世界上沒有任何經濟體有足夠的彈性來承受封鎖。」
((19.55-20.22 the policies and China are putting the party and its status and its credibility ahead of its economic future. And that's a that's a serious problem. So long as that's true, China is going to be really trying to pretty outrageous test. I mean, there's no economy in the world that's resilient enough to withstand lockdowns. ))
美國中國問題專家章家敦(Gordon Chang)認為,應對疫情的政治清零是導致當前中國經濟衰退的多重因素之一,而且中共無意放棄該政策。 美國中國問題專家 章家敦:「目前,中國經濟正在收縮,顯然是逐月收縮,無論是三月還是四月,甚至可能是逐年收縮。這真的很驚人,因為真的沒有出路。」
((0.48-1.02 Right now the Chinese economy is in contraction, clearly on a month to month basis, both March and April, maybe even year to year. And this is really quite stunning, because there really is no path out of this. ))
章家敦認為,現在有內外部兩大作用力,正在加速中國從全球經濟一體化這個大系統中脫離,推動中國與世界脫鉤。 國內原因就是今年秋季中共二十大上習近平是否能實現其第三任期。若無法成功連任,中國將陷入混亂。如果習近平繼續掌權,其政策勢必導致閉關鎖國。 美國中國問題專家 章家敦:「如果這種情況發生,習近平實際上會積累更多權力,我們可以看到中國加快關閉自己,並朝著極權主義、國家主導經濟的方向前進。」
((7.09-7.24 So if that occurs, and C Jinping actually accumulates even more power, we can see China accelerate its path towards closing itself off from moving to totalitarianism to a state dominated economy. ))
外在推動中國脫鉤的力量,則是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭,讓世界各國、特別是西方國家認識到不能依賴單一供應鏈,去全球化的行動,一躍成為各國的優先事項。 美國中國問題專家 章家敦:「我們看到公司開始明白全球化並不能提供一條安全的前進道路,因為海洋和天空都不是貨運的可靠方式。出於多種原因,企業看到他們需要在不同的地方進行生產。你聽到他們不再說『供應鏈』而是談論『供應網絡』。換句話說,有替代的生產商。」
((3.01-3.15 we see companies starting to understand that globalization does not offer a secure path forward, because the oceans and skies are not going to be a reliable means to transport goods. 4.16-4.32 companies for for many reasons, see that they need to locate production in various places, you know, you can hear them talk of move away from supply chains that term to supply webs. In other words, having alternate sources of production))
章家敦指出,當前中共面對著前所未有的、全方位的危機——人口增長衰退和人口老齡化;疫情四起和政治清零;政府債務危機;房地產泡沫;糧食短缺、環境惡化,以及支持俄羅斯入侵導致的被孤立和敵對化的趨勢。而中共對此毫無解決之策。 新唐人記者 李蘭 David Zhang 採訪報導 視頻剪輯:宇微
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